Beyond Correlations and Averages

Individual Differences in Causal Effects of Religious Attendance

Joseph A. Bulbulia
joseph.bulbulia@vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Thanks

Background

Overview

  1. New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (NZAVS):

    • A nationally representative panel study, initiated in 2009.

    • Sample frame is drawn randomly from the NZ Electoral Roll.

    • Postal questionnaire (coverage; retention ~ 70-80%).

    • Large multidisciplinary research team (>60).

    • Focus on personality, social attitudes, values, religion, employment, prejudice \dots

    • Tracks nearly 1% of New Zealand’s adult population annually, with 76,409 participants to date.

  2. Religion’s Causal Effects on Cooperation

  3. Religion’s Causal Effects on Multi-Dimensional Flourishing

  4. Religion’s Causal Effects on Personality

What will we learn today?

Scope and Assumptions

  • Dis-engangling Causation from Correlation in Effects of Religious Service: Good-Life/ Cooperation
  • Focus on “Individual Differences”
  • Evolutionary Interests About How These Domains Are Related

Daily Counts of Processed NZAVS Surveys: Repeated Measures –> Causal Insights

Two Questions/ Two Domains

Eligibility

  • Responded to the time 10 (2018/19) New Zealand Attitudes Study
  • Information about religious service at baseline (yes or no).
  • Inverse Probability of Censoring Weights for Attrition
  • ‘Censored’ if responded during COVID lockdowns (NZAVS 10)
  • A total of 46,377 individuals met these criteria.

Method

  • Clearly stated causal estimands
  • Semi-parametric Machine Learning
  • Censoring models to recover what would have happened to population.
  • New Zealand Census Weights to for population inference
  • Cross-validation: Models always evaluated on unseen data

Context

Sample Demography

Table 1

Demographic statistics by religious denomination (NZAVS wave 10, approx~1.4% of NZ adult population).

Two Types of Esimands

Figure 1: ATE: Three-Wave: Binary Intervention

STUDY 1: Religious Service and The Good Life

1.1 Three Waves Good Life: ATE Causal Forests and Binary Exposure

Figure 2: ATE: Three-Wave: Binary Intervention

1.2 Good Life: Compare 3 waves Binary vs. 3 waves ALL/NONE

Figure 3: ATE: Three-wave Shift Intervention

1.3 Good Life Validation: Compare 3 waves Shift+1 Religious Service with 3 waves Shift+1 Socialising Hours

Figure 4: ATE: Three-wave Soft Intervention

1.4 Good Life: Compare 3 waves ALL/NONE vs 6 waves ALL/NONE

Figure 5: ATE: Six-wave Soft Intervention GAIN: +1

1.5 Good Life: Compare 6 waves ALL/NONE vs 6 waves SHIFT+1

Figure 6: ATE: Six-wave Soft Intervention LOSS: -1

1.6 Good Life: Compare 6 waves SHIFT+1 vs 6 waves Shift-1

Figure 7: CATE RATE

SUMMARY STUDY 1: GOOD LIFE

  • Depends on which effect (single intervention vs five interventions/e.g. shift up/down)
  • Unlikely to be due to hours of socialising (an overly conservative sensitivity analysis)
  • Signals are detectable in binary forests
Figure 8: CATE RATE

STUDY 2: Causal Effects of Religous Service on Cooperation

2.1 Three Waves Cooperation: ATE Causal Forests and Binary Exposure

Figure 9: ATE: Three-Wave: Binary Intervention

2.2 Three Waves Cooperation: Compare 3 waves Binary vs. 3 waves ALL/NONE

Figure 10: ATE: Three-wave Shift Intervention

2.3 Three Waves Cooperation: Compare 3 waves ALL/NONE vs. 3 waves SHIFT+1

Figure 11: ATE: Three-wave Soft Intervention

2.4 Six Waves Cooperation: Compare 3 waves ALL/NONE vs 6 waves ALL/NONE

Figure 12: ATE: Six-wave Soft Intervention GAIN: +1

2.5 Six Waves Cooperation: Compare 6 waves SHIFT+1 vs 6 waves Shift-1

Figure 13: ATE: Six-wave Soft Intervention LOSS: -1

Summary Study 2: Cooperation

STUDY 3: Individual Differences

3.1 Indv Diff: RS->Good Life: RATE

3.2 Indv Diff: RS->Good Life: UPLIFT

3.4 Indv Diff: RS->Good Life: POLICY 1

3.3 Three-wave Individual Differences: CATE Policy Tree: 1

3.4 Three-wave Individual Differences: CATE Policy Tree: 2

3.5 Three-wave Individual Differences: CATE Policy Tree: 3

3.6 Three-wave Individual Differences: CATE Policy Tree: 4

Overall Findings

Important Limitations

  • 76,409 individuals who have participated in the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study since 2009.
  • Templeton Religion Trust: #0198 / #0418
  • University of Auckland / Victoria University of Wellington / Georgia State University
  • Graduate Students & Colleagues

References